Saturday, January 31, 2009

My Somewhat (Il)logical Pick for Super Bowl XLIII

Okay people, so I've been debating all week on which team I'm going to pick in tomorrow's Super Bowl. I like the Steelers because well, defense wins championships (cliche, I know), but it's true. But the Cardinals don't seem to be too big of an underdog anymore. Kurt Warner has been here twice before, and quite frankly, Larry Fitzgerald is playing out of his mind.

So let me get to the point. I'm so hung up on not knowing which team to pick, so I've decided to go with the most (il)logical way to pick tomorrow's winner: fantasy style. Wait.. what?

Every year I, like millions of other people, play in a fantasy football league. This year I used Fox Sports for the league I was in, so I've decided to do each team's roster based on how that Web site sets them up. So the rosters will consist of one quarterback, two runningbacks, one extra runningback/wide receiver, two wide receivers, one tight end or extra receiver, one tight end, a kicker and defense/special teams.

I'll calculate the totals based on each player's season fantasy average, and try to maximize each team's total output by toying around with the different lineups.

So without further ado:

Pittsburgh Steelers
Position______ Name_______ Avg.

QB______ Ben Roethlisberger_ 13.22
RB ______Willie Parker _____ 10.04
RB ______Mewelde Moore ____ 8.44
R/W_____Najeh Davenport ___ 3.58
WR_____ Hines Ward_______ 9.17
WR_____ Santonio Holmes___ 8.00
W/T____ Nate Washington___ 5.18
TE_____ Heath Miller_______ 4.81
K ______ Jeff Reed_________ 7.25
D/ST___ Pittsburgh________ 10.96

Total: 80.65

Arizona Cardinals
Position______ Name______ Avg.

QB _______Kurt Warner___ 20.07
RB_______ J.J. Arrington____9.01
RB_______ Tim Hightower___7.72
R/W______ Edgerrin James__ 5.84
WR______ Anquan Boldin__ 14.21
WR______ Larry Fitzgerald_ 13.44
W/T_____ Steve Breaston___ 9.72
TE_______ Ben Patrick*_____ 1.04
K________ Neil Rackers_____ 7.44
D/ST_____ Arizona________ 11.79

Total: 100.82

*Ben Patrick gets the nod over Jerame Tuman despite Tuman having a higher average score because Patrick actually played in more games and more recently (NFC Championship) than Tuman (Week 9)

Well then, it appears that based on my (il)logical methodology that the Cardinals will win Super Bowl XLIII and "shock the world." One thing that really surprised me here was that Arizona's fantasy defense/special team outscored Pittsburgh's despite Pittsburgh having statistically the best defense in the league.

Basically, this "statistical analysis" as I will refer to it, means that Arizona will win Super Bowl XLII by a score of 24-20. How did I get that score, you may be asking? I just made it up, but it sounds respectable.

That being said, this "statistical analysis" does not reflect my personal opinion on who will actually win the game tomorrow, because quite honestly, I don't care which team wins, even though I did have more Steelers on my fantasy team (three) than I did Cardinals (zero)... which might explain why I finished third this year... oh well.

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