Sunday, January 24, 2010

Comparison: Mark Sanchez and Other Rookie QBs of the 2000s

Ed Note: This post is a bit lengthy, so bear with me.

I'm a Dolphins fan, I don't hide that. So needless to say, I hate seeing the Jets in this season's AFC title game. I am also not a fan of this love affair with rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. Nor am I a fan of people insisting that he is a good quarterback.

What really made me consider writing this post was this piece by The Big Lead, "debunking the myths" surrounding Sanchez. Among those "debunked" is the "myhth that the Jets win in spite of Sanchez. Now, I know why TBL used that myth, because the day prior he asked on Twitter why everyone hated Sanchez, and my response was that the team won in spite of him.

"In spite of" may not have been the best word choice. However, he is not winning the team games, and his performances certainly don't warrant the praise he has received. I likened the Jets winning with Sanchez to the Bears making the Super Bowl with Rex Grossman. That comparison was a bit of a stretch.

See, Grossman had the ability to both win games for Chicago, and seriously blow them, yet the Bears still won. Sanchez, on the other hand, has not really proven he can come through and win the games, nor has he shown he can completely blow them (though his three-interception performance against the Falcons could be said to have lost that game for the Jets). But like the Bears with Grossman, the team is winning (for the most part) regardless of his performance. Bottom line, the Jets are winning because of the team's "vaunted" defense and superb running game, and not because of Sanchez.

Now that that's out of the way, let's get down to the meat and potatoes of this post. In the TBL piece, he mocked Football Outsiders for comparing the rookie season of Sanchez, statistically, to that of JaMarcus Russell, and said the similarities meant nothing. But then, he compared Sanchez to other rookie QBs in the playoffs.

Comparing him to one, but saying the other is irrelevant is absurd. So I've decided to come up with fair comparisons. In the last decade, 26 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round, yet only six of those 26 (about a quarter of them) have started the first game of the season in their rookie years: Sanchez, Matthew Stafford (2009), Matt Ryan (2008), Joe Flacco (2008), David Carr (2002) and Kyle Boller (2003). So I thought it would be fair to compare Sanchez to his fellow rookies in their first seasons.

First, let's take a look at Sanchez's stats from this season:

Mark Sanchez:
Sanchez started 15 regular season games for the Jets, who went 9-7 in 2008. He completed 53.8% of his passes while throwing for 2444 yards and 12 TDs and 20 interceptions. Sanchez also had a passer rating of 63.

And now for the other rookie QBs:

Matthew Stafford:
In his first year for the Lions (who drafted Stafford after going winless in 2008) Stafford only played in 10 games. He threw for 2267 yards, 13 TDs and 20 interceptions while completing 53.3% of his passes with a passer rating of 61.0. Numbers all comparable to Sanchez's, in fewer games, playing for a team that was exponentially worse than the Jets were in 2008.

Matt Ryan:
Ryan was drafted by the Falcons in 2008, a year after the team went 4-12. In his rookie season he started all 16 regular season games. Ryan completed 61.1% of his passes for 3440 yards, 16 TDs and 11 interceptions that resulted in a passer rating of 87.7. Oh, and his team improved to 11-5 (seven more wins than the previous season), and made the playoffs.

Joe Flacco:
Flacco was drafted by the Ravens in 2008, a season after the team went 5-11. As a rookie, Flacco started all 16 games for the Ravens and the team improved to 11-5. He threw for 2971 yards, 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while completing 60 % of his passes and finishing the year with a passer rating of 80.3.

David Carr:
Carr was drafted first overall in 2002 by the expansion Houston Texans. He started all 16 games, going 4-12. Keep in mind, they were an expansion team in their first year. Carr threw for 2592 yards, 9 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He completed 52.5% of his passes and compiled a passer rating of 62.8.

Kyle Boller:
In 2002, the Ravens went 7-9. They drafted Boller 19th overall in 2003, and he started 9 games that season. He connected on 51.8% of his passes, threw for 1260 yards, 7 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Throughout the year, he compiled a passer rating of 62.4 and the Ravens finished at 10-6 and won their division.

Now that we've looked at each rookie QB to open the season starting for his team this past decade, let's put Sanchez in the proper place. First off, every other quarterback on this list was drafted by a team that was below .500 when it drafted him. Sanchez was drafted by a 9-7 team that missed out on the playoffs. It's fair to say that his team, which finished 9-7 again this year, wasn't nearly as bad as the teams that these other guys inherited.

That being said, it's still far-fetched for Jets fans to praise Sanchez as a great quarterback, and dub him The Sanchize, etc. Sanchez didn't improve the Jets in the win column in the regular season, while every other quarterback on this list was good for at least two additional wins for his team in his rookie season.

Statistically speaking, Sanchez best measures up with Carr. Both threw for about 2500 yards, completed roughly 53% of their passes and had touchdown-to-interception ratios of 3:5 with ratings of (again, roughly) 63.

Again, Sanchez started for a playoff-caliber team while Carr started for an expansion team. Had Carr not played for an expansion team, would he have been lauded like Sanchez has? Doubtful.

Bottom line, people need to stop sipping the Mark Sanchez Kool-Aid. He is not a great quarterback, nor is he necessarily a good quarterback (yet). He is par for the course in terms of a true rookie starting quarterback, at least for the last decade. He has just been fortunate to be drafted by a team that already had a good defense and superior rushing game, unlike his fellow quarterbacks on this list, all of whom played for teams who weren't all that good the year before.

Chandler Parsons Does It Again

To say Florida's basketball team has struggled shooting the ball this season -- especially from beyond the arc -- would be an understatement. The team currently ranks 272nd in the nation (and second-to-last in the SEC) in 3-point percentage at 31.3 percent.

Those shooting woes seem to go down the drain when the ball is in Chandler Parsons' hands with the game on the line in the closing seconds. First there was his three-quarters court shot against NC State earlier this season. Then, on Saturday night in the O'Connell Center, after South Carolina went ahead 56-55 with 5.1 seconds left, Parsons drilled his second game-winner of the season.

I'd explain it further, but instead, I'll just let the video speak for itself:

Monday, January 11, 2010

USF Head Coaching Speculation: Tony Dungy?

The biggest storylines so far this college football offseason have involved head coaches. Urban Meyer, Mike Leach, Mark Mangino and of course, Jim Leavitt.

Monday, Leavitt held a press conference with his lawyers, saying that he will fight his firing and try to reclaim his job. I find it very doubtful that this actually works out in Leavitt's favor, especially considering the list of player-witnesses that corroborate the story against him.

Instead, Leavitt, who built the USF football program from the ground up and turned it into what it is today, will be forced to move on. So too, will South Florida.

But just where do the Bulls go from here? They are a young program, in the heart of one of -- if not THE -- richest states, talent-wise.

Today, ESPN's Joe Schad reported that Tony Dungy was at USF on Monday to talk to the players, and the athletic director. Could Dungy be on USF's wishlist for a new head coach? Possibly. Will it actually happen? Unlikely.

Dungy makes perfect sense for USF. He already has ties to the area, and his family lives in the area as well. The job would give him the opportunity to influence young minds -- and help mentor them, in a way similar to what he has done for Michael Vick. And his name would do wonders for the program in terms of recruiting.

But does a return to coaching necessarily make sense for Dungy? When he retired as the coach of the Colts, he said he was ready to become a full-time dad and community volunteer. A return to coaching would take that away from Dungy -- the immense number of hours a head coach puts into the job are well-documented.

But would it really take being a dad and community volunteer away from Dungy? Not when you look at it this way. As I mentioned before -- and as others have discussed with me -- a return to coaching, this time in the college ranks, would give Dungy that opportunity to help mentor and influence impressionable young men. Add in that USF has been recruiting Dungy's son, Eric, to play football. If Eric were to choose USF, and Dungy were to want the job, then it would give him ample opportunity to be actively involved in his son's life, both on and off the field.

When you look at it, Tony Dungy to USF could be a match made in heaven. But I wouldn't hold my breath on it actually happening. Should it occur, though, it would be a huge statement for USF as a football program, and help them make that case for turning the "Big 3" in the state into the "Big 4."

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Chandler Parsons Lifts Florida Over NC State

Chandler Parsons ended the Gators' recent woes by nailing a three-quarters court shot in OT, trailing by 2 against NC State.



I think it's a safe bet to nominate this as an early shot of the season in college basketball.

2009 Miami Dolphins In Retrospect, Briefly.

What an up and down season for the Dolphins. It ended much like it started: with a three-game losing streak. However, there was a 7-3 run sandwiched in the middle, there. But this team was better than the sub-.500 record would indicate.

Think about it. Before the season, Vegas had them finishing the year 7-9. Then take this into consideration: the Dolphins lost their starting quarterback, Chad Pennington, three games into the season. The same QB that led them to an 11-5 record and an AFC East title in 2008. Then, Chad Henne, essentially a rookie, was thrust into the line of fire, and came out with a 7-6 record as a starter, despite battling many growing pains throughout the season.

Then, the team's MVP, Ronnie Brown went to the IR with an injury, and the aging (yet remarkably young) Ricky Williams became the team's workhorse and rushed for over 1,000 yards, putting the team on his back at times.

The combination of those two key losses caused the team to alter its offensive mindset, as the WildCat was almost scrapped completely.

Add in the fact that this team is still devoid of a No. 1 receiver, as Ted Ginn clearly is not the answer, nor are Davone Bess or Brian Hartline (though, those two do make solid second or third options at the position).

Despite all of those setbacks, the Dolphins were still in playoff contention at the end of the season, and they still finished with a record that was expected of them (from the "experts") coming into the year. The team still has a lot of growing to do, and their are obvious voids that need to be addressed through the draft and such. But this team is not as bad as the sub-.500 record indicated. They are closer to being a playoff team, than being a complete and utter mess, and with Bill Parcells running the show, I have full confidence that this team's playoff absence won't last very long.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Top 10 Moments of the Decade in SoFla Sports

With the end of the year quickly approaching, and with it the end of the decade, we here at Fourth and Fail are taking a look back at the decade that was. Today, we take a look at the Top 10 moments in South Florida sports from the aughts.

10. 2003 NBA Draft. The season following a 25-57 record for the Heat, they were blessed with the fifth overall pick in the draft. Fortunately for the Heat, they drafted Dwyane Wade, who has, needless to say, panned out to be one of the best players in the league.

9. Wildcat Unleashed. September 21, 2008. Miami Dolphins 38, New England Patriots 13. The Dolphins came into Gillette Stadium and introduced the Patriots (and the league) to their new Wildcat offense. Ronnie Brown rushed for 117 yards and 4 touchdowns out of the formation, while throwing for another. The game marked the beginning of the Wildcat craze that has swept the league, though no team has perfected it like the Dolphins have. Oh yeah, it also ended New England's 21-game regular season winning streak, as well as the team's 12-game home winning streak.

8. Marlins Play Spoiler. This one was bittersweet for Marlins fans. The Marlins missed the playoffs in both 2007 and 2008. However, both years they closed out the season with a series against the Mets, and both times the Marlins managed to play spoiler and knock the hated-rivals out of playoff contention during the last series of the regular season.

7. Orange Jersey Monday Night Magic. In 2004, the Dolphins got off to a 1-8 start before the Wannstache resigned. Going into Week 15, with a 2-11 record, the Dolphins hosted the 12-1, defending champion Patriots on Monday Night Football. The Fins broke out the orange jerseys, and upset the Patriots, 29-28. It was arguable one of the biggest upsets in the NFL this decade.

6. Anibal's No-no. On September 6, 2006, in just the 13th start of his career, rookie Anibal Sanchez threw the fourth no-hitter in Marlins history. Against the Diamondbacks, Sanchez tossed the no-no -- the first since Randy Johnson's perfect game in 2004 -- by striking out six and walking four on 103 pitches. The moment perfectly encapsulated the Marlins unlikely 2006 season: the rookie-stacked team exceeding most expectations and remained in Wild Card contention into September. Highlights can be viewed here.

5. Camarillo to the Rescue. Week 15. December 16, 2007. The Dolphins were 0-13, and in overtime against the Baltimore Ravens. That's when Greg Camarillo came to the rescue. The undrafted WR out of Stanford made the play of his young career by being on the receiving end of a 64-yard touchdown thrown by Cleo Lemon. The touchdown was the longest offensive play for the Dolphins in 2007, and it was also the team's only win. Camarillo kept the Dolphins out of the (futility) record book, as they finished the season 1-15.



4. One GIANT Loss. If Camarillo's heroics kept the Dolphins out of the record books, then the New York Giants' upset over the then-18-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl kept the Dolphins in the record books. Because New York was able to unseat the Patriots, the '72 Dolphins were able to remain as the only undefeated and untied team in NFL history to win a Super Bowl. While some may not care about a 30-plus-year-old record, it still remains a symbol of pride to many South Florida sports fans.

3. 2002 Rose Bowl. This game, in which the Canes dismantled Nebraska and Heisman winner* Eric Crouch, was the culmination of a magical undefeated season -- capped off by a BCS title -- for UM. The team consisted of many future NFL stars, including Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee and Frank Gore (and that's just at running back), and is always in the class photo when the debates come around for the greatest college football team of all time.

*Heisman should have gone to Rex Grossman, but I digress.

2. 2003 Marlins run through the playoffs. Where do I start with this one? 2003 was a magical trip through the playoffs for the Marlins en route to the team's second World Series title. In the divisional round, the Fish knocked off the defending-NL Champion San Francisco Giants in four games. The decisive game ended with a signature play, as Mr. Marlin himself, Jeff Conine threw out JT Snow -- who tried to truck Pudge Rodriguez -- at home. Pudge held on to the ball through the contact, and the stadium erupted. It marked the first time a series ended with the potential tying run being thrown out at home.

In the NLCS, the Marlins took on the Cubs. Up 3 games to 1, with the series heading back to Wrigley, the Cubs looked to be primed for a trip to the Fall Classic. That is, until Bartman happened. One of the most infamous moments of the decade. It's tough to actually blame Bartman for what happened, especially when the team on the field unraveled (including botched ground balls). The Marlins went on to win the pennant.

In the World Series, the Marlins squared off against the Yankees, and Josh Beckett put on a performance for the ages in Game 6, with the Marlins up 3 games to 2. Beckett pitched a complete game, shutting out the Yankees and recording the final out by tagging out Jorge Posada on a soft grounder. It was quite a title run by the Marlins, and only topped by one moment in South Florida this decade.

1. 2006 NBA Finals. Facing a potential 3-0 deficit and down 13 points with six and a half minutes remaining in Game 3, the outcome didn't look bright for the Heat. A year after falling short in the Eastern Conference Finals, it appeared the team would come away empty handed in the franchise's first trip to the NBA Finals. The Mavs had a victory parade already planned... but that's when Dwyane Wade decided to throw a wrench in those plans. Wade went off, leading the Heat to a comeback victory in Game 3, 98-96. The Heat didn't lose another game in the series, and Wade went on to finish with one of the most memorable performances in Finals history while leading the franchise to its first ever NBA title.















We're sure there are plenty of other moments that deserve consideration as one of the best of the decade -- especially seeing as how we know of other moments that we discussed with each other that just missed the cut. If you have any qualms with our list, or just want to contribute your two cents to the conversation, feel free to do so in the comments.

Monday, December 28, 2009

Miami Heat All-Decade Team

Apologies for the lack of posting recently. It's been winter break, and I've been enjoying some down time to unwind. But this week we will be bringing you a few end-of-the-decade posts to reflect on the aughts. Today, we present to you the Miami Heat All-Decade Team.

Starting Lineup:

PG - Tim Hardaway.
Hardaway hardly played for the Heat this decade, though he did lead the team into the new millennium, and stayed on through the 2000-01 season, where he averaged 15 points and over 6 assists per game. After the 2001 season, he bounced around with a few teams before calling it a career. At the beginning of this season, the Heat honored Hardaway by retiring his No. 10 jersey -- making him only the second Heat player to receive the honor.

SG - Dwyane Wade.
Do I really need to explain why he makes the first team? Simply put, since being drafted in 2003, Wade has become the face of the franchise, as well as one of the top three players in the world, alongside Kobe and LeBron. He's also become a perennial MVP candidate. Hopefully, he will remain in a Heat uniform into the next decade.

SF -
Eddie Jones. Love him or hate him, Eddie Jones was one of the best players this franchise had playing for it this decade. Though his true position is at guard, for the purpose of this list, we moved him to small forward. Over his Heat career, he averaged nearly 17 points a game, while serving as a veteran leader.

PF - Udonis Haslem. Haslem's stats might not always be eye-popping, but since going undrafted out of Florida, Haslem has made a name for himself, spending his whole career thus far in Miami. He does all of the dirty work for the team: rebounding, taking charges and all-around hustle. Not to mention he has mastered the mid-range jumper. He is practically a walking double-double, and his desire to put the team first was epitomized by his willingness to come off the bench this season. He's a fan-favorite, and it would be a travesty to leave him off this list.

C - Alonzo Mourning.
The bicep rounds out the starting lineup at center. Though his halcyon days were with the Heat in the 90s, he makes the starting lineup on principle. His intensity on the court was matched only by his charity off of it, and combined, it has made him one of the most loved athletes in South Florida sports history. He was also the first Heat player to have his number retired by the organization.

Coach: Pat Riley
. Riley was the mastermind behind nearly all the Heat teams this past decade, and while he wasn't always the one on the bench making the calls (Stan Van Gundy and Erik Spoelstra both have had shots), Riley has been the man associated with the Heat more so than any other coach. He coached the team to its first and only league title in 2006 (after he took over for SVG -- but that whole ordeal will not be talked about here).

Bench:

PG - Jason Williams. White Chocolate spent three years with the Heat, averaging about 10 points and 5 assists in his stint on Biscayne Boulevard. He also happened to be the PG at the helm during that fateful 2006 title run, which gives him plenty of credentials, along with the stability, to come off the bench at PG for this all-decade squad.

SG - Caron Butler. The Heat's first round draft pick from 2002 only spent two seasons with the Heat before being traded to the Lakers. But during his rookie season, he averaged 15 points a game, which was second on the team. Since his trade, he has developed into a respectable player, who consistently scores 20 points a game.

SF - Lamar Odom. Odom only spent one season with the Heat before being shipped to LA along with Butler, however, that one season was still good enough to land him on the bench of our all-decade team (17 points, 10 boards and 4 assists per game, while helping to lead the team to the playoffs a season after finishing 25-57).

PF - Brian Grant. I wanted to make an argument for Grant to make the first team at PF, but it was tough between him and Haslem. "The General" was a great leader for the Heat for four years, and like Haslem, his stats weren't flashy, but he did what the team needed him to do -- including playing out of position at center. His best season came in 2001, when he averaged 15 points and 9 boards. He was shipped to the Lakers with Butler and Odom before retiring and later being diagnosed with Parkinson's.

C - Shaquille O'Neal. Statistically speaking, Shaq made a good argument for the first team. His first season in Miami, he had an MVP-caliber season, averaging 23 points and over 10 rebounds a game in leading the Heat to the Eastern Conference Finals. The following season, he would help lead the team to its only NBA title. And while Shaq parted with the team on a bitter note, his contributions to the franchise still made him worthy of the all-decade team.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Poorly Timed Advertisement In Wake Of Chris Henry's Death

Chris Henry, the 24-year-old Cincinnati Bengals WR, passed away early Thursday morning after suffering ultimately-fatal injuries after a domestic dispute with his fiancee.

Henry, who was out for the season after breaking his forearm, was turning his life around following legal issues in his first few years in the league. But then Wednesday, he fell from the bed of a pickup truck and suffered injuries that ultimately took his life.

His passing is tragic, and untimely, and our thoughts go out to his family, both on and off the field.

Like many of you, I woke up this morning to the news of Henry's passing. I went to SI.com for the story, and much to my dismay, there was a poorly-timed advertisement banner above the story, and to the right of it:















That's right, after Henry passed from injuries that he sustained after falling out of the bed of a truck in Charlotte, North Carolina, this ad for Chevy Silverado pops up alongside the story of Henry's death.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Who Will Replace Charlie Strong?

When you become one of the best college football programs in the nation, other programs are bound to start picking off your coaching staff. It started last season, when Mississippi State snatched up Gators offensive coordinator Dan Mullen as its new head coach. Today, Louisville swooped in and will be naming Florida's defensive coordinator, Charlie Strong, the Cardinals' new head coach.

After Mullen left last season, I made an attempt at trying to name a few candidates that Florida could have pursued to replace him. Missing from that list? Steve Addazio. Which either means I had no business trying to make a guess at the replacement, or that Florida had no business promoting Addazio to the offensive coordinator position.

Since Strong will be gone this afternoon, I figured that I'd give this replacement thing a shot again, so here, I give you who I think Florida should get to replace Charlie Strong.
  • Dan McCarney. He's the current defensive line coach for the Gators, and this was only his second season working with Urban Meyer. He is a fiery coach, and my friends who have watched team practices are huge fans of him and his approach to coaching. Before he came to Florida, he spent a year as the d-line coach at USF, and before that, was the head coach at Iowa State for 12 seasons, taking them to five bowl games. He's the most likely choice, should Meyer and athletic director Jeremy Foley decide to keep the job in-house.
  • Chuck Heater. Another logical choice if the job were to stay within the current coaching staff. Heater, who is the current coach of the safeties and assistant defensive coordinator, has been coaching for over three decades, and is one of Meyer's favorite assistants. If you want to see the rest of his lengthy resume, click here.
  • Dick Bumpas. This one is a stretch, and was actually brought up in conversation twice yesterday in discussing this very topic. For those of you who don't know, Bumpas is currently the defensive coordinator for the TCU Horned Frogs. He is responsible for the team having the No. 1 total defense in the nation this season, the sixth best scoring defense, third best rushing defense and fourth best pass defense. Here's the rest of his resume. As I said, Bumpas is a stretch, but why not strike while the iron is hot and bring him in to a big time school where if he has a dominant defense, he won't be relegated to a BCS game against another mid-major team?
Those are just a few names that have come to mind in the last 24 hours, but I'm sure there are some other possibly deserving and qualified candidates out there that I have failed to mention. If you have any ideas, or candidates that you feel deserve the opportunity, feel free to discuss it in the comments section.

Charlie Strong Gets What's Owed To Him

The University of Louisville is set to name Florida defensive coordinator Charlie Strong as the school's knew head coach this afternoon. The school is holding a 4 p.m. press conference to introduce Strong as the Cardinals head coach, and I, for one, could not be happier for Strong.

As most of you know, I do some college football work over at College Game Balls. A few weeks ago, I wrote a post where I made a case for Strong to get a head coaching position. In it, I made a nifty little table of Strong's defenses at Florida over the last five years, which were overall pretty elite units. Check for yourself:












Now mind you, the 2009 rankings were as of mid-November, so they don't include the Alabama debacle. But Strong was putting out a consistently dominant product during his tenure at Florida. He has also widely been considered one of the best recruiters around, which I'm sure will only help him succeed at Louisville.

In that same piece, I argued that Strong should get his first head coaching shot at a BCS school, where he actually has a chance to do big things. Which is just another reason why I am thrilled for him that Louisville is making the hire. It's great to see that his race -- or his wife's race -- didn't matter to a school, especially after it's been thought for years now that that's the reason why Strong was never hired as a head coach before.

But Louisville was able to look past his skin, and his interracial marriage, and will be hiring one of the hardest working coaches in college football. The bottom line is that Louisville is making a great hire in Strong. Yet while part of me, as a Florida fan, is sad to see Strong leave after turning Florida's defenses into some of the best in the nation over most of the last decade, the rest of me couldn't be happier for him.

Why? Because Charlie Strong is finally getting what has been owed to him, and it's long overdue.